PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 6
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Poultry Confidence Index
BY GREG RENNIER
US poultry industry
riding wave of optimism
With poultry supply and demand in balance and cheap corn available
for feed ingredients, U.S. poultry producers are profitable and expanding
At the risk of sounding like a broken
record, the U.S. poultry industry
continued a lengthy streak of optimism with the Poultry Conﬁdence
Index (PCI) tracking scores remaining well above their normative baseline for three consecutive
years. Furthermore, several metrics
improved slightly versus the second
quarter of 2017.
Although a broken record is
often considered an annoying repetition, in this case I just don't grow
weary of repeating myself. All is
well. Good. Great. Superb.
The Overall Index now stands at
140.1 for the third quarter of 2017,
up from 133.8 the previous quarter
(100-point baseline = 1996). The
Present Situation Index held steady
at 170.9 (versus 171.0 last quarter),
while the Expectations Index rose
to 119.5 from 109.0.
Concerns in second-quarter
2017 about a potential decrease in
profits due to higher production
Top-line confidence trends
WATT PoultryUSA-Rennier Associates Poultry Confidence Index survey Q3 2017
For the third quarter of 2017, the Overall Index and Expectations Index
both rose, while the Present Situation Index held steady.
and increased competition dampened considerably. Expert predictions of strong fundamentals have
High-proﬁle expansions of poultry production continue to drive
In addition to poultry production
expansions, respondents credited ﬁrst
and foremost a rising general U.S.
economy, but also cited the absence
of avian inﬂuenza. Other favorable
factors included the availability of
"cheap corn" and the fact that product demand is in fairly close alignment with consumer demand.
The most-recent Consumer
Conﬁdence Index (CCI) also
showed improvement with the general economy playing a key role.
Analysis from the CCI included
this: "Consumers' assessment of
current conditions remained at a
16-year high, and their expectations for the short-term outlook
improved somewhat after cooling
last month ... overall, consumers
www.WATTAgNet.com ❙ October 2017