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Poultry Confidence Index

BY GREG RENNIER

US poultry industry
riding wave of optimism
With poultry supply and demand in balance and cheap corn available
for feed ingredients, U.S. poultry producers are profitable and expanding
production.
At the risk of sounding like a broken
record, the U.S. poultry industry
continued a lengthy streak of optimism with the Poultry Confidence
Index (PCI) tracking scores remaining well above their normative baseline for three consecutive
years. Furthermore, several metrics
improved slightly versus the second
quarter of 2017.
Although a broken record is
often considered an annoying repetition, in this case I just don't grow

weary of repeating myself. All is
well. Good. Great. Superb. 
The Overall Index now stands at
140.1 for the third quarter of 2017,
up from 133.8 the previous quarter
(100-point baseline = 1996). The
Present Situation Index held steady
at 170.9 (versus 171.0 last quarter),
while the Expectations Index rose
to 119.5 from 109.0.
Concerns in second-quarter
2017 about a potential decrease in
profits due to higher production

Top-line confidence trends
(baseline=1996)
250

Overall

Present

Expectations

200
150
100
50

1Q
0
3Q 7
0
1Q 7
0
3Q 8
0
1Q 8
0
3Q 9
0
1Q 9
1
3Q 0
1
1Q 0
1
3Q 1
1
1Q 1
1
3Q 2
1
1Q 2
1
3Q 3
1
1Q 3
1
3Q 4
1
1Q 4
15
3Q
1
1Q 5
1
3Q 6
1
1Q 6
1
3Q 7
17

0

WATT PoultryUSA-Rennier Associates Poultry Confidence Index survey Q3 2017

For the third quarter of 2017, the Overall Index and Expectations Index
both rose, while the Present Situation Index held steady.

and increased competition dampened considerably. Expert predictions of strong fundamentals have
proven true.

Poultry producers
expanding output
High-profile expansions of poultry production continue to drive
enthusiasm.
In addition to poultry production
expansions, respondents credited first
and foremost a rising general U.S.
economy, but also cited the absence
of avian influenza. Other favorable
factors included the availability of
"cheap corn" and the fact that product demand is in fairly close alignment with consumer demand.
The most-recent Consumer
Confidence Index (CCI) also
showed improvement with the general economy playing a key role.
Analysis from the CCI included
this: "Consumers' assessment of
current conditions remained at a
16-year high, and their expectations for the short-term outlook
improved somewhat after cooling
last month ... overall, consumers
www.WATTAgNet.com ❙ October 2017


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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of PoultryUSA - October 2017

PoultryUSA - October 2017
Contents
A new beginning for the editor
Poultry industry riding wave of optimism
Whole genome sequencing essential tool for food safety
Poultry processor sees success renovating hiring process
Chicken producers must speak fearlessly on issues
Broiler welfare: Foodservice sector fi rst to make pledges
100th YEAR SERIES: A glimpse into the future of modern poultry production
Reducing woody breast: latest broiler nutritional research
Market Place
Ad Index
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - PoultryUSA - October 2017
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Cover2
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Contents
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Whole genome sequencing essential tool for food safety
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 3
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 4
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 5
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 6
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 7
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 8
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 9
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 10
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 11
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 12
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 13
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Poultry processor sees success renovating hiring process
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 15
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 16
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 17
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Chicken producers must speak fearlessly on issues
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 19
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 20
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 21
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 22
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Broiler welfare: Foodservice sector fi rst to make pledges
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 24
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 25
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 26
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 27
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 28
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 29
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 100th YEAR SERIES: A glimpse into the future of modern poultry production
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 31
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 32
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 33
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Reducing woody breast: latest broiler nutritional research
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 35
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 36
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 37
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 38
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - 39
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Market Place
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Ad Index
PoultryUSA - October 2017 - Cover4
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