WATT PoultryUSA - November 2017 - 14
14 ❙ WATTPoultryUSA
How the proteins rank in
rates of growth
While currently ahead of aquaculture in total production, chicken
production is growing slower. Based
on recent growth rates that are double pork, global chicken production
will exceed pork by about 2020.
While much smaller than chicken,
the other poultry category is growing
slightly faster than chicken. The primary species are duck and geese, and
the major producer is China.
Often overlooked, egg production
(not including minor duck, goose and
other poultry) is growing at the same
rate as all proteins, faster than pork,
but slower than chicken and aquaculture. Eggs are a favored food source
in developing countries where costs
are an important consideration.
As a separate poultry item, turkey
is the smallest of the categories and
is the slowest growing. Outside of
North America and parts of Europe,
turkey has not gained a foothold in
the protein market.
Pork has been the No. 1 meat in
the global diet since the late 1970s.
Traditionally China has accounted
for close to half of global production. As Chinese population growth
slowed, and incomes grew, pork production growth slowed. Part of that
slower growth is due to the desire to
diversify the diet. Rapid growth of
Chinese aquaculture also put limits
on pork production growth.
Global farmed protein production
1961-2014 actual, 2015-2025 projected
DOMINATE PROTEIN MARKETS
Million metric tons
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) FISHSTAT, FAO PRODSTAT
FIGURE 2: Long-term production trends show poultry and aquaculture
holding much of the share of the global farmed animal protein market.
Beef production growth slowed dramatically in the 1970s. This slowdown
coincided with the global adoption of
the integrated poultry production model. Subsequently, pigs and aquaculture
have also vertically integrated to varying degrees, further putting pressure
on the more traditionally structured
ruminant production systems.
The "other meats" category includes
a wide variety of species that important
in some areas, but are a small share of
global supply. The overall growth rate is
about the same as pork.
The other ruminants, sheep and
goats, are also relatively small and
growing slightly slower than turkey.
This category's growth is concentrated in the Middle East, where
sheep and goat meat is preferred,
and local small-scale production is
relatively cost effective.
Chicken and aquaculture
Dramatic differences in global
farmed meat production categories are
a symptom of differences in production efficiency and local preferences.
The most efficient categories are winning share. Ruminant-based production systems will remain an important
source of animal protein, but cannot
match the more efficient systems that
have been growing faster for decades.
Overall farmed animal protein
production is increasing faster than
the population. There are no apparent short-term barriers to prevent
continued growth in global per capita
farmed animal protein production. ■
Thomas Elam, PhD, is president of
This is the 11th article in WATT Global Media's 100-year anniversary series, which offers a glimpse into the future
of protein markets. The next article in the series will explore food safety.
www.WATTAgNet.com ❙ November 2017