WATT PoultryUSA - April 2018 - 10
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Per capita disappearance of chicken, turkey,
beef and pork in the US, boneless weight basis
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Turkey (right axis)
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, LEAP Market Analytics 2018 forecast
Domestic meat consumption is rising since 2014, but chicken is steadily
gaining a lead on competing proteins.
must also be placed into the context
of global trends. Internationally, red
meat and poultry production is also
expanding quickly, helping to meet
local demand growth and ostensibly
limiting potential U.S. exports.
The combined effects of export
growth and an increasing population
aren't likely to be enough to keep
pace with increasing U.S. red meat
and poultry production in 2018.
Consequently, domestic per capita
disappearance of all red meat and
poultry in the U.S. is forecast to
increase more than 2 percent overall
in 2018 to 182.8 pounds boneless
weight from 178.8 pounds in 2017.
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Pounds per person
Pounds per person
This coordinated expansion effort
is expected to leave per capita disappearance of all red meat and poultry
near record levels in 2018 and right in
line with a pattern observed between
2002 and 2007. So, in a broader
sense, we've been here before.
However, the U.S. broiler industry is
looking at record per capita disappearance of chicken at 66.6 pounds
boneless weight basis, an increase of
more than 3 percent from the 64.6
pounds available per person in 2017.
Record chicken supplies and nearrecord total meat and poultry supplies
in the U.S. don't automatically spell
doom. But the margin for error is arguably much smaller for the broiler industry now than it was in prior years.
The industry should be somewhat
concerned that production volumes
are expanding at a pace above and
beyond what can be absorbed through
exports and population growth.
If we don't see expansion efforts
easing soon, or we're unable to tap into
unrealized export prospects, the total
www.WATTAgNet.com ❙ April 2018
3/29/2018 1:02:48 PM