PoultryUSA - August 2018 - 20
20 ❙ WATTPoultryUSA
Global poultry trade may
become turbulent in 2018
Despite a positive start to the year for the world's poultry industry,
several negatives loom on the horizon that could have a serious
impact on the global trade in poultry meat.
Global trade in poultry meat
could be heading toward a
series of significant disruptions as 2018 progresses,
to warn in its "Poultry
Quarterly Q2 2018"
that the sector could
face "its biggest shakeup
in decades this year."
Among factors cited by
the bank are the repercussions
from Brazil's Weak Flesh investigations, including recent restrictions
on EU trade; a pending ban on meat from
stunned birds in Saudi Arabia; North American Free
Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations; and Chinese
dumping investigations of Brazilian product. Avian influenza will also have an ongoing negative impact.
Brazil will be the most affected
The possibilities of disruption to global trade streams
and prices are strong this year and, of all countries,
Brazil may be the most affected.
The implementation of a ban on stunning in Saudi
Arabia, Brazil's largest export market, could hit the
Brazilian industry hard, particularly given that there are
limited alternatives for its whole bird exports.
The country is also coping with restrictions in its
leading export market for breast meat - the EU -
Difficulties for exporters
could be beneficial for
local producers as
demand and prices
rise. NotionPic I Shutterstock
and HP30 I Shutterstock
due to concerns over
Countries including Ukraine, Russia and
Poland stand to gain if Brazil
loses market share, but they will
not be able to fully replace Brazil's
position in these markets.
Additionally, Brazil is losing the advantage it
gained when competitors were hit by avian influenza.
The U.S. in particular has been regaining markets with
its outbreaks now behind it, and the loss of confidence
in Brazilian product.
EU trade restrictions are impacting breast meat
prices, the Saudi standard is challenging the whole bird
market, and the China-Brazil dispute and NAFTA renegotiations could potentially affect the dark meat market.
If NAFTA renegotiations result in trade restrictions,
it may be difficult for the U.S. to find alternative markets
for its dark meat, putting downward pressure on dark
meat prices. The country exports 3 million tons of poultry
www.WATTAgNet.com ❙ August 2018