PoultryUSA - August 2018 - 23
GLOBAL POULTRY TRADE
continue, the result will be fewer disruptions to
global trade in broiler meat, as well as to trade in
China has seen a remarkable recovery from avian influenza, with one of the most profitable winter seasons in years
for the industry, due to avian influenza vaccination.
Local industries will perform well
South Africa and Mexico in particular are performing well, as are Indonesia, India, Japan and the U.S. The
EU is also performing relatively well, notes Rabobank,
and breast meat prices are likely to rise due to restrictions on Brazilian product.
Russia and Thailand, however, are suffering from oversupply after expansion, and will be looking to capture some
of Brazil's lost market share.
The EU industry will benefit from rising breast meat
prices, and prices in Saudi Arabia are expected to rise sharply.
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The country has a self-sufficiency rate of only 45 percent, and
there will be no alternative supplier who can replace Brazil and
the EU once new halal standards are implemented.
The weakest-performing countries this year are expected to be Brazil, Thailand and Russia. Thailand and Russia
have over-expanded production, resulting in oversupply in
their home markets. While both countries are reporting rising exports, this will not be enough to compensate for weak
Feed price concerns
Beyond global trade volatility, however, increasing feed
prices are a significant concern. Droughts in the Southern
Hemisphere have resulted in rising prices. Most of the negative
impact should be offset by high global stock levels, but any
worsening of the outlook could affect future feed prices. ■