Poultry USA - June 2019 - 12

12 ❙ WATTPoultryUSA
KNOW ABOUT ASF

Paul Aho, Poultry
Perspective
Benjamin Ruiz

Christine
McCracken,
Rabobank
Courtesy Rabobank

Ben Bienvenu,
Stephens Inc.
Courtesy Stephens Inc.

Jim Sumner, USA
Poultry & Egg
Export Council
Courtesy USA Poultry &
Egg Export Council

Specifically for chicken, Aho
said this scenario is good even if
the U.S. does not end up exporting
any chicken to China. The U.S.
industry is fortunate to be opening
new poultry plants, and renovating
existing facilities to increase production, just as the ASF outbreak is
impacting the protein supply. Rather
than contributing to an oversupply
situation as was feared, Aho said
the plants look perfectly timed and
should be opening to high demand
and favorable prices.
Ben Bienvenu, the managing
director of Stephens Inc.'s food and
agribusiness research sector, said
the short-term impacts may take a
while to be seen. Chicken, and other
protein prices, will rise more slowly
than pork. From a stock market
perspective, ASF only emerged on
the scene in the past few months.
However, the publicly traded
companies involved in the chicken
industry - Tyson Foods Inc.,
Pilgrim's Pride Corp., Sanderson
Farms Inc. - experienced rising
stock prices as news of the severity
of the ASF outbreak spread and as
seasonal demand for chicken began
to increase.

Potential longer term impacts
Looking into the future, it is harder
to say how the U.S. poultry industry
will be affected by the current
outbreak of ASF. Generally, if China
has a protein shortage, it will mean
more opportunities for other countries to fill the demand.

Bienvenu said it's likely the ASF
event will take years to be resolved.
Even if the disease were totally
eradicated overnight, it would take
20 months for China to get back
to its pre-ASF production levels.
Because of that, he expects chicken
to benefit in terms of higher prices
for the next several years.
Turkey will also likely benefit as
consumers typically tradeoff between
pork and turkey, particularly at the holidays. McCracken said whenever there
is a shortage of ham on the market,
turkey normally benefits. Lower
supplies of competing protein on
domestic markets should help alleviate
oversupply issues in the turkey market,
but it may not see the direct benefit of
Chinese demand. Bienvenu agreed that
ASF will be a positive demand driver
for products like ground turkey meat
and for turkey versus ham.

Will ASF force a trade deal
between the US and China?
The most significant question
surrounding the financial impact of
ASF on the U.S. poultry industry is
whether or not the U.S. will be able
to directly export products to China
again. As of press time, there are
ongoing negotiations between the
U.S. and China to establish a new
trade deal between the world's two
largest economies.
Right now, no one can say with
certainty that the ASF situation in
China will force a deal. Nevertheless,
the fundamentals of supply and
demand suggest that the U.S. could
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Poultry USA - June 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Poultry USA - June 2019

Poultry USA - June 2019
Contents
African swine fever could change everything
ASF sparks uncertainty in the global meat industry
What the US poultry industry needs to know about ASF
How chicken will succeed in the digitized proteins market
Startup organic poultry producer off to fast start
4 keys to cooling broilers using tunnel ventilation
Evaluating early feeding for broilers is complicated
US chicken trade faces challenges and opportunities
Mexico’s poultry industry grows facing uncertainty
Product Review
Market Place
Ad Index
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT1
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT2
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Poultry USA - June 2019
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Cover2
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT3
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT4
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Contents
Poultry USA - June 2019 - ASF sparks uncertainty in the global meat industry
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 3
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 4
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 5
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 6
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 7
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 8
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 9
Poultry USA - June 2019 - What the US poultry industry needs to know about ASF
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 11
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 12
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 13
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 14
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 15
Poultry USA - June 2019 - How chicken will succeed in the digitized proteins market
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT5
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT6
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 17
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Startup organic poultry producer off to fast start
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 19
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 20
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 21
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 22
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 23
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 24
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 25
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 4 keys to cooling broilers using tunnel ventilation
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 27
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 28
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 29
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Evaluating early feeding for broilers is complicated
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 31
Poultry USA - June 2019 - US chicken trade faces challenges and opportunities
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 33
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 34
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 35
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Mexico’s poultry industry grows facing uncertainty
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 37
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 38
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 39
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 40
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 41
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 42
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 43
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 44
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 45
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Product Review
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Market Place
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Ad Index
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Cover3
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Cover4
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