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Poultry Market Prospects

BY MARK JORDAN

ASF sparks uncertainty in the
global meat industry
A shortage of protein in China and around the world will create an
opportunity for U.S. poultry.

Supply deficit
sends prices soaring
China is expected to lose at least
150 million pigs and 25 to 30
billion pounds of pork output over

Chinese pork production compared
to total US protein production
China pork

Million pounds

China's swine herd reportedly suffered
staggering losses over the past months,
creating challenges and opportunities.
The country's swine industry
represents a significant chunk of the
entire global meat supply. In 2018,
China produced 17.5 billion pounds
(carcass weight) of pork. That's
larger than the U.S.' total combined
output of beef, pork, chicken and
turkey during the same year.
Hog inventories in China are now
severely depleted as a result of an
African swine fever outbreak that
started in August 2018 and has since
become a crisis. A lack of transparency by the Chinese government
undermines efforts to accurately
report the scale of the problem.
Conservative estimates say losses
total at least 20% of China's annualized pork production capabilities,
with potentially more than one-third
of its pork sector wiped out. 

US red meat and poultry

US meat/China pork (right axis)

140,000

90%

120,000

87%

100,000

84%

80,000

81%

60,000

78%

40,000

75%

20,000

72%

0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

69%

Sources: United States Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service and Foreign Agricultural Service

As of 2018, the total production of beef, pork, chicken and turkey in
the U.S. amounted to roughly 85% of Chinese pork production.
the next six to 12 months. Losses
could easily wind up much higher if
containment efforts fail.
Market reactions have been
fierce. Meat protein prices in China
are soaring, with beef and poultry at
record levels as of February 2019.
The Chicago Mercantile
Exchange's Lean Hog Index rallied
from just over $50 per hundredweight
in late February to more than $80 per
cwt. by the end of April 2019. During
the same time period, the U.S.

Department of Agriculture's wholesale pork cutout value surged from
close to $60 per cwt. to more than
$85 per cwt. Comparatively, chicken
leg quarters climbed from around
$0.30 per pound in mid-February to
more than $0.40 per pound by midApril 2019.

No easy solutions to filling
China's meat supply gap
China's ASF woes aren't a short-term
issue, either. While the worst may
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Poultry USA - June 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Poultry USA - June 2019

Poultry USA - June 2019
Contents
African swine fever could change everything
ASF sparks uncertainty in the global meat industry
What the US poultry industry needs to know about ASF
How chicken will succeed in the digitized proteins market
Startup organic poultry producer off to fast start
4 keys to cooling broilers using tunnel ventilation
Evaluating early feeding for broilers is complicated
US chicken trade faces challenges and opportunities
Mexico’s poultry industry grows facing uncertainty
Product Review
Market Place
Ad Index
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT1
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT2
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Poultry USA - June 2019
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Cover2
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT3
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT4
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Contents
Poultry USA - June 2019 - ASF sparks uncertainty in the global meat industry
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 3
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 4
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 5
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 6
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 7
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 8
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 9
Poultry USA - June 2019 - What the US poultry industry needs to know about ASF
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 11
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 12
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 13
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 14
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 15
Poultry USA - June 2019 - How chicken will succeed in the digitized proteins market
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT5
Poultry USA - June 2019 - CT6
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 17
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Startup organic poultry producer off to fast start
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 19
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 20
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 21
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 22
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 23
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 24
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 25
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 4 keys to cooling broilers using tunnel ventilation
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 27
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 28
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 29
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Evaluating early feeding for broilers is complicated
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 31
Poultry USA - June 2019 - US chicken trade faces challenges and opportunities
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 33
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 34
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 35
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Mexico’s poultry industry grows facing uncertainty
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 37
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 38
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 39
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 40
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 41
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 42
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 43
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 44
Poultry USA - June 2019 - 45
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Product Review
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Market Place
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Ad Index
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Cover3
Poultry USA - June 2019 - Cover4
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