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Poultry Confidence Index

BY GREG RENNIER

Resumed poultry trade with China
spikes industry confidence
Poultry industry confidence is near historic highs as exports
are projected to rise quickly.

The Chinese market
Although poultry production is
expected to rise during this final

Present

Expectations

200
150
100
50

1Q19

1Q18

1Q17

1Q16

1Q15

1Q14

1Q13

1Q12

1Q11

1Q10

1Q09

1Q08

1Q07

1Q06

1Q05

1Q04

1Q03

1Q02

1Q01

0
1Q00

The PCI now stands at 141 (1996
= 100), up slightly from 133 in
the third quarter of 2019. The
Present Situation Index - based
on perceptions of current business
and labor market conditions -
stayed relatively unchanged to 151
from 154 the previous quarter.
The Expectations Index - based
on the short-term outlook for
income, business and labor
market conditions - rose to 133
from 118.

Overall
250

1Q99

Near record highs

Top-line poultry industry confidence trends

basaeline=1996

In late November 2019, Chinese
officials announced a resumption
of trade with the U.S. This had a
profound effect on fourth-quarter
2019's Poultry Confidence Index
results. 

Source: WATT/Rennier Poultry Confidence Index, Q4 2019

This 2019 fourth quarter's overall index was the highest since the first
quarter of 2018. Results for the 2019 calendar year rivaled the recent
highs of 2017, and even challenged 2014 as the most optimistic year
ever for the PCI.
quarter of 2019 and into 2020,
it did not dampen enthusiasm. A
few respondents cited the impact
of the grilling season on the sixmonth horizon, but most talked
exclusively about the resumption
of trade with China to support
their optimism. The majority

Read more from Greg Rennier:
www.wattagnet.com/authors/1641

expected profits to rise.
The U.S. Department of
Agriculture was also bullish on
the situation. Although its analysis predicted increased production, it also felt market conditions would continue to support
currently favorable chicken prices
now and into 2020.
Finally, the Consumer
Confidence Index (CCI) has
also remained historically
high - although not as strong
www.WATTAgNet.com ❙ January 2020


http://www.wattagnet.com/authors/1641 http://www.WATTAgNet.com

Poultry USA - January 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Poultry USA - January 2020

Poultry USA - January 2020
Contents
Will the trade war cool off in 2020?
Poultry’s Perch: USPOULTRY invests millions in poultry industry research
US could find $1 billion poultry market in China
Feed additives that will succeed in 2020 and beyond
What role will alternative proteins play in the future?
Mar-Jac Poultry feed mill built for capacity, expansion
Poultry consumers want convenience, claims
Perdue Farms, Niman Ranch have been good for each other
Product Review
Market Place
Ad Index
Poultry USA - January 2020 - CT1
Poultry USA - January 2020 - CT2
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Poultry USA - January 2020
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Cover2
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Contents
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Will the trade war cool off in 2020?
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 3
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 4
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 5
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Poultry’s Perch: USPOULTRY invests millions in poultry industry research
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 7
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 8
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 9
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 10
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 11
Poultry USA - January 2020 - US could find $1 billion poultry market in China
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 13
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 14
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 15
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Feed additives that will succeed in 2020 and beyond
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 17
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 18
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 19
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 20
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 21
Poultry USA - January 2020 - What role will alternative proteins play in the future?
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 23
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 24
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 25
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 26
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 27
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Mar-Jac Poultry feed mill built for capacity, expansion
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 29
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 30
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 31
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 32
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 33
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 34
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 35
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 36
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 37
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 38
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 39
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Poultry consumers want convenience, claims
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 41
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 42
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 43
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 44
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 45
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 46
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 47
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Perdue Farms, Niman Ranch have been good for each other
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 49
Poultry USA - January 2020 - 50
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Product Review
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Ad Index
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Cover3
Poultry USA - January 2020 - Cover4
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